Not science fiction: Miami wants to predict when and where crime will occur
Miami police work a shooting scene at the Marathon Gas Station at Southwest 37th Avenue and 16th Street on Monday, March 30, 2015. WALTER MICHOT MIAMI HERALD STAFF
Armed with high-tech software and years of crime data, Miami police believe they will soon be able to stop crimes by predicting when and where they will occur.
It sounds a little like something out of a science fiction novel, but the department is in the process of adopting a system called HunchLab that produces maps showing small areas where specific crimes are likely to be committed during shifts. The probability program is a geographical version of “predictive policing” software, which more departments are using — even if, in the words of one supportive cop, it’s “kind of scary.”
Similar algorithm-based programs have been credited with lowering crime rates in cities around the country, and some South Florida departments recently have adopted their own systems. In Miami’s case, the department is funding the implementation of HunchLab and other software programs with a $600,000 federal grant doled out by the Bureau of Justice Assistance to encourage smart policing tactics.
Miami accepted the grant in November. On Thursday, the city commission will vote on a $120,000 contract with Florida International University to have Rob Guerette, an associate professor of criminal justice, study the department’s program and run tests ahead of its launch.
“It doesn’t replace actual police work,” said Lt. Sean MacDonald, who wrote the grant application. “It’s policing with smarter technology.”
MacDonald said Miami police want to use HunchLab mostly to tackle robberies, auto thefts and home burglaries — crimes in which the department has clearance rates about half the national average. With the program, officers or supervisors will be able to focus their attention on areas where software models tell them that data show there is a high probability that crime will occur.
Police, of course, have always tried to use data to identify crime trends, and for years Miami police have done that with the data-crunching system known as COMPSTAT. Except, now, instead of identifying where crime hot spots have occurred, they’re looking at where crime will occur.
“It goes beyond just looking at crime data,” MacDonald said.
Just how much — and whether — predictive software really works remains somewhat of a question. But officers in Los Angeles say a program known as PredPol developed by the department and college professors, and now sold to departments around the country, has helped prevent and stop property crimes, and is now being tested on gun crimes.
In Atlanta, crime dropped by close to 10 percent in two zones where predictive software by the L.A.-based PredPol was put into use by cops during a three-month pilot program, according to Lt. LeAnne Browning, who oversees the department’s video integration center. Supervisors handed out maps to officers at the beginning of their shifts, and when cops had spare time they spent it in the targeted areas. The department monitored where their cops were, how much time they spent in high-risk zones, and every report that came out of the highlighted areas.
“We all thought it was somewhat hocus pocus and Minority Report,” she said, referring to the Steven Spielberg sci-fi film in which police used psychic powers to stop murders before they happened. “We could see if PredPol was predicting fairly well. It’s kind of scary, because they were.”
It’s just one example of how police are using software to solve or prevent crimes. Miami-Dade’s robbery division, for instance, uses an IBM program called Blue PALMS to solve cold cases. The software has a database of every crime ever documented by Miami-Dade police, and detectives can punch in an old crime report and get a list of 20 suspects within one minute.
“This is not science fiction,” Major Arnold Palmer says in a promotional IBM video.
In Miami, MacDonald said that the software the department is using is a more elaborate version of PredPol, which uses only crime data. Miami police also are punching in everything from paydays to school calendars, weather reports and social media. The department also is using the federal grant to establish an offender database.
Larry Samuels, CEO of PredPol, cautioned about the use of multiple variables, saying the more information you pump into a system, the more the predictions will vary. He said with Miami, as with any policing tool, predictive software will be only as good as the officers using it.
“If you do it in a haphazard way you’ll get haphazard results,” he said. “The credit for success needs to rely in the department.” http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article19256145.html Minnesota declares state of emergency over bird flu in poultry Minnesota declared a state of emergency on Thursday over a fast-spreading strain of avian flu that has led to the extermination of more than 7.3 million birds in the country. It followed Wisconsin's action on Monday.The highly pathogenic H5N2 strain of bird flu has been identified on 46 Minnesota farms in 16 counties and affected more than 2.6 million birds in the state.
State health officials said they were expediting prescriptions for the antiviral drug Tamiflu for farm workers and others who have been in direct contact with infected flocks. No human infections have been reported in this outbreak.
"There's no reason for anybody in the state of Minnesota to be concerned about their own health," Governor Mark Dayton said at a press conference on Thursday after declaring the state of emergency.
Federal and local public health authorities have said the risk of human infection is low.
The state's action to provide antiviral drugs follows recommendations from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Minnesota's health department approached 140 farm workers and others who had been in direct contact with infected birds and advised 87 of them to take the Roche antiviral medication as a preventative measure, the department's spokesman Michael Schommer said. Seventy of them took the drug, he said.
Of the 62 people that state health officials have followed up with so far, none have been infected by the virus, Schommer said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/23/us-health-birdflu-minnesota-idUSKBN0NE2JP20150423
New Bill Would End ATF Collection of Race and Ethnicity Data
A bill introduced in the House of Representatives would remove race and ethnicity reporting requirements on Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) background checks for firearm purchases.
The bill, named the FIREARM Act, is sponsored by Reps. Diane Black (R., Tenn.) and Ted Poe (R., Texas). It will make the race and ethnicity reporting optional instead of mandatory on ATF Form 4473, removing what supporters of the bill call a “back-door” form of gun control.
“You shouldn’t have to answer 20 questions to Uncle Sam in order to get your firearm, it should be your Second Amendment right to do that,” Black said. “The race and ethnicity requirement on the background check is not necessary.”
“This is a way to throw another wrinkle, another barrier, in front of people who want to buy a firearm and for firearms dealers to stay in business,” the congresswoman said. “I think it is a back door way of limiting the number of people that will exercise their Second Amendment rights.”
“This is yet another instance of the Obama Administration looking to use its executive powers to impede law abiding citizens from exercising their Second Amendment rights,” said Jennifer Baker, a spokeswoman for the National Rifle Association. “The NRA supports the FIREARM Act and the efforts of Congressmen Black and Poe to beat back this egregious violation of privacy,” she said.
ATF said that while Form 4473 does require firearm purchasers to disclose their race and ethnicity, the agency does not do anything with the information. “ATF does not collect that information,” said Corey Ray, a spokesperson for the bureau. “We do not compile it, review it, analyze it, or store it in any capacity, in any way.”
“And we have no plans to,” he added.
Black said if firearms dealers turn in background checks without the race and ethnicity sections filled out, they could lose their license. “If the firearm purchaser does not fill out both of those boxes then the firearms seller is held accountable for that and they can actually lose their license,” she said. “So, what this bill says is this is not a necessary part of the information the government needs to know.”
ATF contends that, while the race and ethnicity information is a required part of the form, failure to submit that information wouldn’t necessarily lead to immediate license revocation, and that license revocation is “rare.”
“That alone would not result in any major penalty,” Ray said. “We require that [Federal Firearms Licensees] FFLs obtain completed, error free forms. That includes an accurate address, date of birth and other information.”
“There is no unique focus given to any of those areas. If an FFL fails to obtain completed 4473 forms, ATF would communicate to the FFL the proper procedures. A warning could be issued if the process is not corrected. But revocation of a license—for any infraction—is rare. Less than one percent of the of the 10,429 firearms compliance inspections made last year resulted in ATF seeking a revocation.”
The bill’s supporters think the requirements are unnecessary regardless of how often they are used. “They say they don’t use that information for anything in particular,” Rep. Black said. “So, if that’s the case, then they don’t really need to have the information. It obviously shouldn’t be one of the requirements, what color is your skin or what ethnic background you have, in order to purchase a firearm.”
“If you are eligible to purchase a firearm then you should be able to do that without having to go through these hoops.”
While she would not speculate on how the Senate or the President might receive the bill, Black expects it to do well in the House.
“I think we will get bipartisan support in the House,” she said.
http://freebeacon.com/issues/new-bill-would-end-atf-collection-of-race-and-ethnicity-data/
It sounds a little like something out of a science fiction novel, but the department is in the process of adopting a system called HunchLab that produces maps showing small areas where specific crimes are likely to be committed during shifts. The probability program is a geographical version of “predictive policing” software, which more departments are using — even if, in the words of one supportive cop, it’s “kind of scary.”
Similar algorithm-based programs have been credited with lowering crime rates in cities around the country, and some South Florida departments recently have adopted their own systems. In Miami’s case, the department is funding the implementation of HunchLab and other software programs with a $600,000 federal grant doled out by the Bureau of Justice Assistance to encourage smart policing tactics.
Miami accepted the grant in November. On Thursday, the city commission will vote on a $120,000 contract with Florida International University to have Rob Guerette, an associate professor of criminal justice, study the department’s program and run tests ahead of its launch.
MacDonald said Miami police want to use HunchLab mostly to tackle robberies, auto thefts and home burglaries — crimes in which the department has clearance rates about half the national average. With the program, officers or supervisors will be able to focus their attention on areas where software models tell them that data show there is a high probability that crime will occur.
Police, of course, have always tried to use data to identify crime trends, and for years Miami police have done that with the data-crunching system known as COMPSTAT. Except, now, instead of identifying where crime hot spots have occurred, they’re looking at where crime will occur.
“It goes beyond just looking at crime data,” MacDonald said.
Just how much — and whether — predictive software really works remains somewhat of a question. But officers in Los Angeles say a program known as PredPol developed by the department and college professors, and now sold to departments around the country, has helped prevent and stop property crimes, and is now being tested on gun crimes.
“We all thought it was somewhat hocus pocus and Minority Report,” she said, referring to the Steven Spielberg sci-fi film in which police used psychic powers to stop murders before they happened. “We could see if PredPol was predicting fairly well. It’s kind of scary, because they were.”
It’s just one example of how police are using software to solve or prevent crimes. Miami-Dade’s robbery division, for instance, uses an IBM program called Blue PALMS to solve cold cases. The software has a database of every crime ever documented by Miami-Dade police, and detectives can punch in an old crime report and get a list of 20 suspects within one minute.
“This is not science fiction,” Major Arnold Palmer says in a promotional IBM video.
In Miami, MacDonald said that the software the department is using is a more elaborate version of PredPol, which uses only crime data. Miami police also are punching in everything from paydays to school calendars, weather reports and social media. The department also is using the federal grant to establish an offender database.
“If you do it in a haphazard way you’ll get haphazard results,” he said. “The credit for success needs to rely in the department.” http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article19256145.html Minnesota declares state of emergency over bird flu in poultry Minnesota declared a state of emergency on Thursday over a fast-spreading strain of avian flu that has led to the extermination of more than 7.3 million birds in the country. It followed Wisconsin's action on Monday.The highly pathogenic H5N2 strain of bird flu has been identified on 46 Minnesota farms in 16 counties and affected more than 2.6 million birds in the state.
State health officials said they were expediting prescriptions for the antiviral drug Tamiflu for farm workers and others who have been in direct contact with infected flocks. No human infections have been reported in this outbreak.
"There's no reason for anybody in the state of Minnesota to be concerned about their own health," Governor Mark Dayton said at a press conference on Thursday after declaring the state of emergency.
Federal and local public health authorities have said the risk of human infection is low.
The state's action to provide antiviral drugs follows recommendations from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Minnesota's health department approached 140 farm workers and others who had been in direct contact with infected birds and advised 87 of them to take the Roche antiviral medication as a preventative measure, the department's spokesman Michael Schommer said. Seventy of them took the drug, he said.
Of the 62 people that state health officials have followed up with so far, none have been infected by the virus, Schommer said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/23/us-health-birdflu-minnesota-idUSKBN0NE2JP20150423
New Bill Would End ATF Collection of Race and Ethnicity Data
A bill introduced in the House of Representatives would remove race and ethnicity reporting requirements on Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) background checks for firearm purchases.
The bill, named the FIREARM Act, is sponsored by Reps. Diane Black (R., Tenn.) and Ted Poe (R., Texas). It will make the race and ethnicity reporting optional instead of mandatory on ATF Form 4473, removing what supporters of the bill call a “back-door” form of gun control.
“You shouldn’t have to answer 20 questions to Uncle Sam in order to get your firearm, it should be your Second Amendment right to do that,” Black said. “The race and ethnicity requirement on the background check is not necessary.”
“This is a way to throw another wrinkle, another barrier, in front of people who want to buy a firearm and for firearms dealers to stay in business,” the congresswoman said. “I think it is a back door way of limiting the number of people that will exercise their Second Amendment rights.”
“This is yet another instance of the Obama Administration looking to use its executive powers to impede law abiding citizens from exercising their Second Amendment rights,” said Jennifer Baker, a spokeswoman for the National Rifle Association. “The NRA supports the FIREARM Act and the efforts of Congressmen Black and Poe to beat back this egregious violation of privacy,” she said.
ATF said that while Form 4473 does require firearm purchasers to disclose their race and ethnicity, the agency does not do anything with the information. “ATF does not collect that information,” said Corey Ray, a spokesperson for the bureau. “We do not compile it, review it, analyze it, or store it in any capacity, in any way.”
“And we have no plans to,” he added.
Black said if firearms dealers turn in background checks without the race and ethnicity sections filled out, they could lose their license. “If the firearm purchaser does not fill out both of those boxes then the firearms seller is held accountable for that and they can actually lose their license,” she said. “So, what this bill says is this is not a necessary part of the information the government needs to know.”
ATF contends that, while the race and ethnicity information is a required part of the form, failure to submit that information wouldn’t necessarily lead to immediate license revocation, and that license revocation is “rare.”
“That alone would not result in any major penalty,” Ray said. “We require that [Federal Firearms Licensees] FFLs obtain completed, error free forms. That includes an accurate address, date of birth and other information.”
“There is no unique focus given to any of those areas. If an FFL fails to obtain completed 4473 forms, ATF would communicate to the FFL the proper procedures. A warning could be issued if the process is not corrected. But revocation of a license—for any infraction—is rare. Less than one percent of the of the 10,429 firearms compliance inspections made last year resulted in ATF seeking a revocation.”
The bill’s supporters think the requirements are unnecessary regardless of how often they are used. “They say they don’t use that information for anything in particular,” Rep. Black said. “So, if that’s the case, then they don’t really need to have the information. It obviously shouldn’t be one of the requirements, what color is your skin or what ethnic background you have, in order to purchase a firearm.”
“If you are eligible to purchase a firearm then you should be able to do that without having to go through these hoops.”
While she would not speculate on how the Senate or the President might receive the bill, Black expects it to do well in the House.
“I think we will get bipartisan support in the House,” she said.
http://freebeacon.com/issues/new-bill-would-end-atf-collection-of-race-and-ethnicity-data/
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